Time for my regular quarterly returns post, one of the most popular features here on Lend Academy. I have been sharing my detailed quarterly returns with readers since 2011 and I will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. I know investors are most interested in returns, in particular how they have been trending over time. You can go back and look at the breakdown of my investments every quarter for the past six years.

If you do look at my historic returns you will see they have been moving steadily in a downward trajectory since the beginning of 2014 when my trailing twelve month (TTM) return was 12.44%. I look back on those returns wistfully now, when my accounts were firing on all cylinders and in reality we were being overly rewarded for the risk we were taking. Today, the pendulum has swung too far the other way and I think the return is too low for the risk.

Overall Marketplace Lending Return at 5.01%

The long decline in my returns has continued with 2017 by far my worst year since I began investing with LendingClub back in 2009. My overall TTM return  in Q4 2017 was 5.01% compared to 6.64% in Q3 2017 and 8.07% one year ago.

I used to proudly say I had never had a down month in my LendingClub or Prosper investments. Now, I have not just had down months but down quarters as well. And I came perilously close to having a down year in my main LendingClub with my return coming in at 0.01%.

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Every quarter around this time I get emails from readers asking when I will be publishing my quarterly returns post. For many years now it has been one of the most popular features on Lend Academy. People like to know how others are doing so I have been sharing my returns here every quarter since Q4 2011. Over the years I have diversified beyond my initial investments in Lending Club and Prosper into the three major asset classes within marketplace lending: consumer, small business and real estate.

Overall Marketplace Lending Return at 7.28%

One could almost say my returns are in a downward spiral. Since peaking in Q1 2014 at 12.44% my returns have decreased pretty much every quarter and for the last two years that decrease has averaged around 0.5% per quarter. Two years ago I stood at 11.3% and my weakest Lending Club account earned a respectable 8.19% and the average return of my original six accounts was 9.51%. Times have indeed changed since then.

This past quarter my overall returns stood at 7.28% and the returns for my original six accounts were 5.07%. My worst Lending Club account was my original account there and it came in at 1.95% for the year. The only good news, if there was any, was that I did not have a negative quarter in any of my accounts this quarter unlike in Q1.

For those readers who may be new to my quarterly returns post the reason for the drop in my returns are issues, primarily at Lending Club, in the D and E grade loans issued in late 2015 and early 2016. These have underperformed significantly, particular the 36-month loans, and these are the loans I have made the bulk of my portfolio. Now, I made some adjustments at the start of this year but these loans are still defaulting at higher than expected rate and it will be the end of the year I expect before I will see things begin to improve.

Now on to the numbers. Click the table below to see it at full size.

As you look at the above table you should take note of the following points:

1. All the account totals and interest numbers are taken from my monthly statements that I download each month.
2. The Net Interest column is the total interest earned plus late fees and recoveries less charge-offs.
3. The Average Rate column shows the weighted average interest rate taken directly from Lending Club or Prosper.
4. The XIRR ROI column shows my real world return for the trailing 12 months (TTM). I believe the XIRR method is the best way for individual investors to determine their actual return.
5. The six older accounts have been separated out to provide a level of continuity with my earlier updates.
6. I do not take into account the impact of taxes.

Now, I will break down each of my investments from the above table grouped by company. [Read more…]

It is that time again when I share my investment returns. I like sharing these details because I believe in transparency and I know people are interested in my returns and how they are trending over time. I started out in marketplace lending many years ago with just Lending Club and Prosper but slowly have added new investments over the years. I included a relatively new account this quarter, StreetShares, they are a small business lender with a difference – you can read about them here and also listen to my podcast with the co-founders from last year.

Overall Marketplace Lending Return at 7.73%

The downward trend continues unabated in my returns. And while I said last quarter that was my worst ever, unfortunately I can now say the same again. In fact, this quarter set new lows, with one of my Lending Club accounts actually losing money during the quarter. This is the first time that has happened with any of my marketplace lending accounts.

I complained last quarter that the annualized return, based just on the latest quarterly numbers, on my main Lending Club account had dropped to 2.1% in Q4. Well, this quarter it dipped further. The balance on this account on December 31, 2016 was $39,733, the balance on March 31, 2017 was $39,472 for a -2.6% annualized return according to Lending Club’s own statements. I have had negative months here and there but never before have I experienced a negative quarter at Lending Club or Prosper since I started investing almost eight years ago.

When I look at where the recent defaults have been coming from the majority are in the D and E grade 36-month loans issued in 2015. These loan grades have underperformed significantly, something we covered in some depth earlier this year. When I said last quarter that I hoped the worst is behind us that clearly was not the case. I now expect my returns to continue to drift downward as more of this 2015 vintage hits their peak default months.

Now on to the numbers. Click the table below to see it at full size.

As you look at the above table you should take note of the following points: [Read more…]

Regular readers know that this is one the most popular features on Lend Academy. I have been sharing my detailed quarterly returns with readers since 2011 and I will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. I know investors are most interested in returns, in particular how they have been trending over time. You can go back and look at the breakdown of my investments every quarter for the past five years.

Overall P2P Lending Return at 8.07%

The good news, if there was any this past quarter, is that my declining returns have stabilized somewhat. My overall trailing twelve month (TTM) return in Q4 2016 was 8.07% compared to 8.21% in Q3 2016. I am taking this as good news because in every quarter for the previous one and a half years my returns had dropped 0.5% or more. Comparing the year ago quarter the picture is still not pretty – my TTM return in Q4 2015 was 9.85% so I am down almost 2% since then.

I have been thinking for some time that my returns have just about reached bottom but now I am not so sure. The reality is that Q4 was the worst quarter I have ever had if you look at it in isolation. Just taking a look at my six mature Lending Club and Prosper accounts the TTM return for those accounts was 6.75%, but the annualized return just for Q4 was just 5.3%. And if you look at my main Lending Club account that was opened in 2009 the numbers were even worse – the annualized Q4 return on that account was just 2.1%.

Overall my defaults in Q4 were the highest they have ever been. Several of my Lending Club accounts had negative months where the charge-offs were more than the total interest earned. December seemed to be a little better and January was also decent so I am hoping the worst is behind us. We are all paying for the mistakes made by Lending Club and Prosper in 2015 as they clearly mispriced many of their loans, particularly those in the higher risk loan grades where my portfolio is focused. They have since increased interest rates and tightened underwriting considerably so we should see better results from 2016 and 2017 vintages. But the reality is I still have many loans in my portfolio from 2015 that are late and will eventually default.

If you are interested in more analysis of the Lending Club and Prosper loans issued in 2015 you should read this excellent analysis done by Ryan recently.

Now on to the details. Click the table below to see it at full size.

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Sharing the details of my returns is one of the regular features on Lend Academy and one that I am quite passionate about. It is also the feature that I get the most emails about – people really like to see actual returns on seasoned investments. I have been investing since 2009 and opening up my accounts for the world to see since Q4 2011.

You can go back and follow my journey from an investment that has grown from $84,000 in Q4 2010 to around $681,000 today. Now, I have added substantially to my initial investments and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Eventually, I plan to have a diversified seven-figure portfolio made up of consumer, small business and real estate loans.

Overall P2P Lending Return at 8.72%

Now on to the numbers. Once again my trailing twelve month (TTM) returns have dropped from the previous quarter. While still a respectable 8.72% it is down from 11.30% just a year ago and also down from 9.28% last quarter. This is a trend that has continued for a couple of years now but I expect I am close to the bottom (assuming the economy still keeps chugging along). While declining interest rates and increasing defaults have been the norm for some time now there are signs this trend is coming to an end. The average interest rate on most of my accounts has risen in the past quarter as the platforms have raised rates quite aggressively this year. My six core holdings, those that have been opened the longest, also continued their decline to come in at a TTM return of 8.01%.

Now on to the details. Click the table below to see it at full size.

As you look at the above table you should take note of the following points: [Read more…]