Happy New Year everyone. Here is my annual predictions post where I review my previous years predictions and make some new ones for the new year.
Review of my 2015 Predictions
- Lending Club will issue $10 billion in new loans and Prosper $4.1 billion
I was a bit optimistic on my loan volume predictions. While both companies had a great 2015 Prosper came in at $3.7 billion for the year, below my $4.1 billion projection. We won’t know Lending Club‘s final numbers until their next earnings call in a few weeks but we do know that they did $5.8 billion through Q3. So, if they keep a similar growth rate to previous quarters I would expect around $2.5 billion in Q4 for $8.3 billion in total loans for the year. Still a great year but below the aggressive numbers I projected.
- Prosper will remain a private company
I got this one right. Prosper remained a private company with not even a whisper of an IPO for them in 2015.
- There will be two new marketplace lenders completing an IPO
This one I got completely wrong. Given the state of the IPO market today compared with 12 months ago it is not surprising that no other U.S. based marketplace lending went public in 2015.
- A new platform will launch targeting non-accredited investors
I was only partially right on this one. While several new platforms contacted me throughout the year with their intention to launch for retail investors the only offerings that actually launched in 2015 were from existing real estate platforms Groundfloor and Fundrise.
- A midsize bank starts their own marketplace lending platform
This was an interesting one. While I also did not get this one right there was more talk about the banks role and response to our industry in 2015 than ever before. We did see news break in June about the intention of Goldman Sachs to create their own platform but nothing has materialized on that front yet. I think I was just a year early on this (see prediction #4 below).
I also predicted that Lending Club would make two acquisitions and I was dead wrong on that as well. Lending Club is biding their time on acquisitions but clearly they will grow their borrower base at some point through acquisitions. I am confident that the predictions I got wrong will all come true in the near future, some in 2016 as you can see below.
My 2016 P2P Lending Predictions
Now on to this year. I am going to see if I can improve on my somewhat dismal performance from 2015. Here are several predictions I feel confident making for 2016. [Read more…]